It’s four years off in the horizon, but it’s never too early to plan ahead for open seat Senate races. From CQ, comes word that Presidential hopeful Chris Dodd has determined that, one way or another, this will be his last term in the Senate:
Sen. Christopher Dodd, through his counsel, has sent a letter to the Federal Election Commission stating he “is no longer a candidate in the 2010 election for the United States Senate in Connecticut.”
Do you have a favorite to replace Dodd in four years? A comebacker for Ned Lamont, perhaps? Or maybe a promition for rising star Chris Murphy? CT’s Attorney General, Richard Blumenthal, has long been rumored to have higher aspirations, but has been hindered by a lack of openings at the top of the ticket (and his unwillingness to challenge popular Republican Gov. Jodi Rell last November). Has his time passed, or is this just the opening that he’s been waiting for?
On the flip side, who might be the Republican standard-bearer? Chris Shays, who could prove formidable, will be 65 in 2010. Rob Simmons, who lost narrowly to Democrat Joe Courtney last year, will be even older (67). I can’t seem to find Blumenthal’s date of birth on the ‘net.
Update: Looks like we might be jumping the gun here, according to Hotline On Call:
Well, while legally true, CT Dems shouldn’t start licking their chops about the supposed “open seat” in three years. In order to transfer all of his money he raised for his 2010 re-election to his WH campaign account without penalty, he had to file a statement with the FEC saying he wouldn’t run. It’s simply an accounting thing, nothing more. In fact, should Dodd not be elected POTUS in ’08, he, indeed can legally open a new Senate 2010 account. He did this so that he could raise maximum amounts from donors who gave to that 2010 campaign account.An inquiry to Dodd’s campaign about the above mentioned story prompted the following response from spokesperson Beneva Schulte: “It’s a legality that isn’t an indication of future plans.”
Dodd will be 64 in 2008. Presumably, he should have enough gas in the tank for another term or two. Or he could pull a Bob Graham. We’ll see.
I’d love to see Lamont in the Senate, but I don’t know how much a factor Iraq will be in 3+ years. Better yet, I’d love to see Ned win as a candidate of the newly revamped “Connecticut for Lieberman Party.”
Dodd is only going to be 63 in 2007 according to Wikipedia. Wonder why he has decided not to run again? It does explain the Presidential run however, he has nothing to lose.
I haven’t really given Connecticut in 2010 any thought yet. 2007 Governor races are more interesting at the moment. But I would put Ned LaMont at the head of any prospective candidate list. Liberman will oppose him but Ned would not be facing an incumbent in 2010 and that is an entirely different dynamic than he faced in 2006.
Shays not that formidable. I think Murphy has a great shot. Blumenthal may want it. The Republicans are really weak with Bench strength.
Don’t count out Rosa DeLauro!!
Will he run for Governor in 2010.
Possible replacements other than Bluementhal
Larson
DeLauro
He deserves it if he wants it. Even if it is just because he took on Holy Joe.
Senator from Connecticut in 2012. He’s a riseing star who has beaten everyone he has taken on and he’s still young and will be a great alternative to Joe. He also can have appeal to the 5th District voters who are the most conservative of the 5 districts which would help him big in the general.
Some of the more obvious choices/possibilities, in alphabetical order:
Richard Blumenthal, Attorney General
Susan Bysiewicz, Secretary of State
Joe Courtney, Congressman
Rosa DeLauro, Congressman
Ned Lamont, ’06 candidate
John Larson, Congressman
Chris Murphy, Congressman
Denise Nappier, Treasurer
Kevin Sullivan, former Lt. Gov.
Nancy Wyman, Comptroller
What about Rell? Is she gonna run? I would think she would be tough to beat.
The article seemed to suggest that by changing his filing status for 2010, Dodd gets to use Senate money for his Presidential race. Are we sure this isnt a formality? Obviously Dodd would be free to change his mind after the 2008 campaign season is over, and refile for Senate, no?
Just wondering.
Jodi Rell could drop the governorship and run for this, and she’d be VERY hard to beat. That’s why, I was hoping that Dodd wouldn’t retire, making her hesitate to run with the looming race against a popular five term incumbent ahead.
I don’t think she’ll be as tough to beat by then. She was replacing the corrupt Rowland and recovering from Breast Cancer. Lots will happen in 4 years.
She is very popular, and won re-election overwhelmingly in a heavily democratic year.
Shays could put up a fight for the senate, but would certainly not be the favorite.
John Larson won’t run (house leadership). I hope Lamont doesn’t run, because he’d probably lose again (too polarizing, Lieberman would openly oppose, has-been, etc). New Rep Chris Murphy, who beat out US Rep Nancy Johnson is my personal favorite.
Rep. Chris Murphy (D) vs. Gov. Jodi Rell (R), Murphy would win by around 55-45.
Lamont should take on Shays in 2008, he lives in CT-4.
Now THAT would be something else.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Gov. Rell did run, but…
1. She may not be so popular in four years. Governors’ approval ratings tend to be pretty volatile (who thought Bob Riley would survive in AL?).
2. Even if she is still very popular, that tends not to be enough in a situation like this. It’s not all that unusual for a solidly red or blue state to have a popular governor of the other party. But when it comes to giving the other party another vote in the Senate, voters tend to get cold feet no matter how popular the governor is. Just ask Bill Weld, Mike Sullivan, Tony Knowles, etc. The only exception I can think of is Evan Bayh, and he had the advantage of drawing the least conservative opponent the Republicans could have put up against him in his first race (so the far right base couldn’t be bothered to turn out in full force for him). I don’t see anything similar to that happening in Connecticut.
I wasn’t aware that she was interested, though.
Stanley Greenberg is working for Dodd for President, even though he has many Clinton ties. Greenberg is married to DeLauro; maybe there is an endorsement in the deal.
are Ned Lamont and Dick Blumenthal, and of those two, I’d have to say that Blumenthal has the institutional edge, since he’s been waiting so long to ascend to either the Governorship or the Senate.
My hunch is that Blumenthal, if he sees an opening for the Governorship (assuming Rell’s term-limited) will run for that, leaving the Senate race open for Lamont, assuming he wants to make it.
I’m kind of skittish about Murphy solely for the fact that we would then have to defend that open seat, the least Democratic in the Connecticut delegation.
In response to ramblindaves statements about Jim douglas and Baucus’s re-election/retirement in 2012: Baucus’s up again in 2008, then 2012, tester is up in 2012. as for jim douglas, as a liberal Vermonter Bernie-ista I can say douglas would stand a very good chance in an open race for the senate, Bernie and Leahy would crush him, but in an open race he’d have a very good chance. Case and point, welch barely beat Rainville in a year when Bernie decimated Tarrant with 2/3’s of the vote. During this same election, douglas was reelected with 57% in both a heavily democratic year and with the entire liberal caucus of Vermont energized by the Bernie/Tarrant race. Needless to say, if a seat in the senate open’s up (supreme court justice Leahy) ol’ Dougie boy would have a chance, especially if congressman Peter Welch, Matt Dunne, or peter Shumlin were the only candidates the dem’s could come up with.
If Dodd does indeed step down in 2010, my guess is that Dick Blumenthal would run for the Senate and would be unbeatable within the Democratic Party. That assumes, however, that a Dem hasn’t won the White House in 2008 and that by 2010 Blumenthal isn’t already sitting on the Federal bench somewhere and therefore out of the picture.
If Blumenthal doesn’t run, there will be several other Party pols who will line up for the seat. I wouldn’t count any of the Congressmen/women out (Larson, DeLauro, Murphy, maybe Courtney), plus Susan Bysiewicz the Sec of State, each of whom has a following. Lamont’s viability four years from now is difficult to predict given his lack of office holding experience, but he could also be helped by a Democratic President in ’08 who might appoint him to a sub-cabinet position giving him more policy and political gravitas.
On the Republican side, I doubt Chris Shays would run, but you never know. Waiting in the wings, especially if there’s an open seat, is State Senator John McKinney whose father preceeded Shays in the House. Another potential contender is Kevin O’Connor, the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut. Both are young and attractive and would do well in the suburban and rural areas.
For Governor, Rell is widely expected to step down after serving her current term, but again you never know (many thought she wouldn’t run for a full term after taking over from the disgraced John Rowland). Either way, for the Democrats expect New Haven mayor John DeStefano and Stanford mayor Dan Malloy each to try again.
From Political Insider:
“In order to transfer all of his money he raised for his 2010 re-election to his [White House] campaign account without penalty, he had to file a statement with the FEC saying he wouldn’t run. It’s simply an accounting thing, nothing more. In fact, should Dodd not be elected [President] in ’08, he, indeed can legally open a new Senate 2010 account. He did this so that he could raise maximum amounts from donors who gave to that 2010 campaign account.”
In addition, “an inquiry to Dodd’s campaign about the above mentioned story prompted the following response from spokesperson Beneva Schulte: ‘It’s a legality that isn’t an indication of future plans.'”